Trading Analysis - 17th Dec 2018

Alfacomp

17 December 2018

11:00AM


The 1 Million Sell, reported immediately, at 8:55am, whilst numerous earlier 100K buys languished unreported at the time, obviously dominates proceedings.

The elephant is clearly in the room now. A 1 million Sell reported immediately, and the SP doesn't budge - clearly the Market Makers are now getting desperate for shares. The MM who is short dearly would love to put a lid on this activity, but they cannot, and will, in time, be forced to face up to further lengthening their short position or having to concede the game is over and they must close out and take their foot off the neck of the share price.

1:00PM


Periods of incredibly tight trading have returned, together with clear evidence of Market Makers needing shares:- 1.3M could be sold at 40.5p just before 11am. Selling slightly outnumbers buying after the 1M Sell at 9am - though who knows how many Buys are yet to be reported ?

End of Day


The lack of a real time feed of trades after about 2:10pm means that we cannot extract any reliable advertised Bid or Ask levels after this time - these have therefore been removed from the chart at this point.

After hours reported trades are available which correspond closely in time and quantity with a number of large trades during the day, eg the 1M sell just before 9am. The trades appear in closely timed pairs, but always at different prices - pairs just like that observed on the 7th December. These therefore seem to form a consistent pattern of rollovers. There appear to be pairs of 1M then 150K and then 3x 250K - thus yielding 1.9M shares churned in total.

Who might be rolling over ? Someone with some kind of T20-style trade - though there is an awful lot of them. Alternatively it may be a mechanism employed by Market Makers to be able to keep a short position running for longer than the period within which they might need to deliver shares. Further monitoring of these types of rollover trades will maybe shed more light on this at a later stage.

So having accounted for the very large trades that have appeared today we find that the end day trading position ends at +496K... or it would be if an after hours 'Sell' of 817,323 had not popped up:


What is interesting about this trade is that it appears to be of type 'TNCP', that is a "Non Price Contribution to Discovery" trade which is, I am led to believe, usually the result of some kind of balancing trade effected by an "investment firm which, on an organised, frequent, systematic and substantial basis, deals on its own account by executing client orders outside [a trading venue].

One assumes that this might be something such a spreadbetting platform which might take Buys (say 1000 shares) and Sells (say 800 shares) on its books and then only have to actually back the resulting nett trade result - in this case a Buy of 200 shares on the real share market. Usually the TNCP trades are very small in size. This is one of the first that is of any appreciable size and will of course be monitored closely in the following days.

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