Trading Analysis - 24th Sept 2018

Alfacomp

24 September 2018

9:30AM


Strong buying first thing - but then after 8:15am apparently almost as equally strong selling. Either this is dumb money jumping out after getting 5% rise or really dumb shareholders selling. No duplicate trades reported as yet so no confirmation of potential Atlas warrants situation.

11:34AM


Continued buying despite many 250K Sells being dropped in. Two confirmed duplicate pairs observed (250K and then 100K, marked in green). This leaves 257,309 remaining from the Atlas warrants block. There was a trade of 7,309 early in the day which may have been purely coincidental, but what a coincidence !

Another duplicated trade of 250K pops up and we may be able to conclude that Atlas is now out. Favourite for this is the 250K Sell at 8:33:42 just after another 250K buy and hot on the heels of the 250K / 100K combo. Joint second favourites are the three 250K Sells between 8:17 and 8:23 AM. We may have to wait until the end of the day to know the precise time that the Atlas warrants were fully pre-sold into the market.

3:32PM


Lots of delayed sells appearing in the 11am - 1pm period, though no more duplicates (as predicted). A large 1M Sell at 12:45 prefigured the subsequent drop and increase in spread after 1pm. I trust that 1M Sell will not be reversed later, for if it was then that might be considered market manipulation. The spread has obviously been increased after 1pm to penalise those people who may not be able to hold on to a single share for more than a day.

Officially the busiest trading day I have ever analysed and still an hour to go.

End of Day


The end of day late reported trades showed up a new duplicate pair trade - the 1M Sell at 12:45:05. This also corresponds to the point at which the share price behaviour changed drastically. Before this time it appears that the Market Makers were being forced to walk the price up in order to get the shares that they needed. After this 1M Sell (shown in green) the SP is walked down and the spread increased to take profit from day traders.

I believe that the first two duplicate pair trades in the day belong to the same group as have been observed over the last 4 trading days - and these correspond to the Atlas warrants being pre-sold. I believe that this new duplicate pair may correspond to a start of a new block of warrants that was uncovered in the 4 hours between 9am and 1pm today - these are the remaining 3.6M Wogen warrants, previously tapped in May (SP 21.5p) and July (SP 24p) this year.

For the second day running there were 3 delayed 500K trades reported for the last hour of trading in the previous day. These have been incorporated appropriately in the updated charts below. 


As for the previous day there appears to be an significant excess of PI Sells (i.e. Market Maker Buys) on a day when the price has been increasing strongly - evidently the market makers still need shares and are happy to increase the price to get them. It would appear that they have now bought something like 2.5M more shares than they have sold (yellow curve below) - it obviously makes sense for them to build this long position if they think the price is going to move up strongly - eg precisely if they were aware that they are sucking up the very last of the warrants and the era of cheap shares is soon to finish forever.


The light green curve illustrates how the duplicated pair trades observed before noon today would correspond closely to the Atlas warrants block. There is a significant period of time (half the day) in which no further duplicated trades have been observed - which appears to the correspond to the end of the Atlas block being reached. The Darker green curve shows the duplicated pair trades after this which are now to be counted in the second block - should this build to and terminate close to the dotted purple limit, the 3.6M Wogen warrants block size, then the close correspondence between the two warrants blocks and the duplicated pair trades will have be established.

At that point there will be nothing to hold the share price back and the Market Makers will have built themselves a long position of something in the region of 5M shares - a 5p increase in share price at that point could nett them a quarter of a million pounds.

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