Trading Analysis - 27th Nov 2018

Alfacomp

28 November 2018

End of Day


Hooray - the price is now 43p !

Market Makers have at last started cashing in the shares of their tame seller in order to start eating into the c. 5M short position that they had built up over the last couple of weeks. 

How does this play out - well up to 2pm it is the standard behaviour we have seen all along - despite an excess of buying Market Makers have continued to walk the price down. The reduction in buying price from 45p at opening to 43.5p at 2pm is not in response to anything that has actually happened in the market - it is simply designed to fit in with the Market Makers hidden agenda and I contend is therefore a form of market manipulation.

After 2pm we see what this is - get the price low enough so that large sells from their tame seller can be thrown in. First off is a 499.5K sell at 43.10p (highlighted in yellow) though it is not reported as that at this time, in fact it is reported as a trade of only 125K at 43.25p first, before this is reversed off later in the day. 8 minutes later we have another 125K Sell at 43.10p, appearing as a duplicate pair and then within the hour another significant Sell of 100K.

At 15:29 a very small Sell of 7,080 shares is sufficient to cause the Bid to drop by 0.5p and Market Makers are then able to obtain blocks of 35K, 76K and 38K shares all at less than 43p - the trade sizes suggest that these are from PI's. This selling is still not sufficient to deal with the excess of buying which threatened to push the nett trading position positive again for the day - so at 4:19pm another 375K block of shares, again believed to be from the tame seller is dropped in at 43.0p. After hours a Sell of 132,964 shares, again I believe from a PI, perhaps a stop loss, allowed the MMs to walk away with c. 420K shares today at an average Buy price (for them) of around 43.1p. Like taking candy from a baby, kerching !

If you want to buy shares then you could do it now or you could wait until a little more of the c. 5M MM's short position is cleared. If you wanted to time such a purchase then you might need to take a position on the timing of company news, such as an update from Bushveld Energy, say, arriving before the end of this week. Without a crystal ball this, like all short term trading, is a risk.

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