Trading Analysis - 4th Oct 2018

Alfacomp

4 October 2018

9:43AM


Yesterday's sellers strike seems to have had a salutary effect on the Market Makers - they have called the bottom and are moving the SP up on minimal volumes. They will continue until they can persuade someone to sell at this low level.


11:17AM


Very tight spread right now - looks like the risk of being spiked by MMs has retreated and further buying will inevitably push the SP up.

12:24AM


Again minimal significant selling apart from the delayed sells at 10:33 (100K) and 12:05 (250K) - this still leaves Market Makers needing more than 320,000 shares to balance their books.

End of Day


The sellers strike seems to have had a significant effect - apart from a 250K sell around 12:15 the only other significant sells are a series of 100K sells (marked in green) that popped up at various points during the day.

These don't look like a coordinated attempt to short, now would be a very bad time to consider doing that, with the newly emergent upward momentum. This instead looks like a shareholder top-slicing by selling into buying strength. With the SP liable to bounce up some way from here if their hope is to be able to buy back at a lower price then they could be in trouble - better to buy back today and give the SP another helpful kick up - such is the fate of the accidental day trader.

813,000 more buys than sells - the market makers may be hoping that First Island continue to feed them shares at this price and that First Island have not set a series of increasing sell prices, now exhausted up to c. 32p - if the latter then they will need to chase the price up to that level pretty quickly.



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